Ted Olshansky began his investment career in 1968 as a registered broker with Dean Witter & Co., Inc. Mr. Olshansky was a market maker and member of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) from 1975 to...
Publish Date: March 29, 2007
Ted Olshansky
Did you ever take a ride on the Reading Railroad? Maybe the game Monopoly comes to mind. But the market in March has been on quite a ride also. Let’s take a look at the reasons for this volatility and what to expect in the coming months.
We can ascribe the rollercoaster ride to many events, among them, fears of an economic slowdown, sub prime lending, the housing bubble, oil, complacency and the fact that investors were sitting on large profits. These concerns were among those that caused the Dow Jones to retreat twice to the psychological 12,000 level. Both times it held.
Among the reports coming out which helped bolster investor confidence were the National Association of Realtors reporting a 3.9% increase in existing home sales vs. the expected 3% decline, a report by Bank of America Securities that massive funds were sent to American Mutual Funds, and of course the Fed assuaging investors fears of a rate hike which would have hurt an already slowing economy and exacerbated the housing problems.
The Fed report left open the door for a future rate cut and the market responded with a 150 point advance. Some of this rally was short covering, but in the end stock prices were higher and investors were happy.
In the short term, the market will be concerned about rising oil prices and the negative news on housing. Look for a continued volatility with a slight bias towards the upside.
The Bullish/Bearish number remains at 70%.
"Tough Times Never Last, but Tough People Do"
Reverend Robert Schuler
Q: If I buy a straddle (a call and a put of the same strike price), how do I determine my maximum profit? Marla Franklin
A: Your profit is determined by how much the stock moves above or below the strike price, less what you paid for the straddle. So for example, if you bought an April 40 straddle for $2.00, your profit would be everything below $38.00 or above $42.00. You would be losing money between $38.00 and $42.00.
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