Ted Olshansky began his investment career in 1968 as a registered broker with Dean Witter & Co., Inc. Mr. Olshansky was a market maker and member of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) from 1975 to...
Publish Date: April 26, 2007
Ted Olshansky
Though April showers may have come your way… As far as the market is concerned, April showers only fell on the bears. From the lows of late February until April 26th, the market (Dow Jones) advanced about 1000 points or 8%. This included a streak of 15 advances in 16 sessions, a feat which hasn’t occurred since 1927.
What were the causes of the market strength? As stated before, the market is most concerned with earnings and interest rates. Strong earnings from Apple, Caterpillar, J.P. Morgan, Citicorp and Eli Lilly gave investors some confidence that we would be able to achieve the so called “soft landing”. This, coupled with the Fed’s inability to raise rates due to fear of exacerbating the housing problem helped lead the buying stampede. And this is one of the major causes of the weak dollar and gold at $680 per ounce.
Further impetus to the market and very important is the tremendous amount of stock companies are buying back. Estimates range in the area of 4% of all outstanding shares. This of course will have the effect of increasing corporate earnings
Hanging overhead, the market is still grappling with a 39% slowdown in new housing orders, a weak dollar, $165 oil and some legitimate inflation worries, i.e. food, health care and energy. And let’s not forget that after 18 successive quarters of double digit earnings increases, analysts are cutting back their first quarter estimates to about 3.8% according to Thompson Financial. Although some feel that the very high level of corporate buyback of stock could bring this up by about 2 percentage points.
This writer says higher for the following reasons. Earnings for the S&P 500 should come in about $94 for 2007. This puts the average at about 16X earnings. With interest rates low, less world tension and the economy growing at an acceptable rate, the market should be able to continue its march for the next several months. Earnings and low interest rates will lead the way.
Bullish Bearish Number: 75
Don’t chase a stock. There is a train leaving everyday.
Q: What would you say is the most common reason people lose while trading options?
Helen Kotler, California
A: There are many, but one of the most common errors is chasing a market. In other words, buying calls when a stock is running up.
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